26-044 Robust Collision Probability Assessment with Parametric Uncertainties

Mission

The rapid increase of Resident Space Objects (RSOs), particularly space debris, has heightened the importance of Space Surveillance and Tracking (SST) for ensuring the safety and sustainability of space operations. A central challenge is reliable collision risk assessment. The key decision metric is the Probability of Collision (Pc), which guides satellite operators in determining whether to perform avoidance maneuvers once a risk threshold is exceeded.

Currently, the standard approach relies on a two-dimensional Pc (Pc2D) calculation, which reduces the problem to integrating a bivariate Gaussian distribution over a disk defined by the combined hard-body radii of the objects. This method is computationally efficient and widely used in operational conjunction assessments. However, its accuracy strongly depends on the covariance matrix, which is often uncertain due to orbit determination limitations. A known issue is the dilution phenomenon, where ...